India's obesity drug war escalates as Novo Nordisk's patent expiry nears

India's obesity drug market is heating up as Novo Nordisk's patent on semaglutide nears expiry. The move opens the door for cheaper generics, with major local firms already securing approvals. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is ramping up investments, positioning India as a key hub for global production and sales of its own weight-loss treatments.

Novo Nordisk's patent on semaglutide in India will end in March 2026, not 2023 as previously thought. This delay still leaves room for competitors, as Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Cipla, and Biocon have already gained regulatory clearance to launch generic versions. Industry body Pharmexcil predicts treatment costs could drop from current levels to around $77 per month within a year, eventually falling to roughly $40. Dr. Reddy's alone plans to sell 12 million injection pens in its first year.

Eli Lilly, however, is making aggressive moves to dominate the market before generics flood in. The company has poured over $1 billion into contract manufacturing in India, aiming to integrate the country into its global supply chain. Mounjaro, its flagship obesity drug, has already become Eli Lilly's best-selling medication in India just months after launch. The drug's stronger efficacy and competitive pricing give it an edge over Novo Nordisk's offerings.

Beyond local sales, Eli Lilly sees India as a strategic export base. Medications like Donanemab and Orforglipron will soon be produced in India for worldwide distribution. The country's booming obesity drug market—fuelled by projections that it will hold the world's second-largest obese population by 2050—adds to its appeal. To widen access, Eli Lilly is partnering with digital platforms such as Tata 1MG, Practo, Apollo, and Cipla, ensuring its drugs reach smaller cities and rural areas.

The expiry of Novo Nordisk's patent will slash prices, making obesity treatments far more affordable for Indian patients. Eli Lilly's billion-dollar bet on local manufacturing and distribution networks positions it to capitalise on both domestic demand and global exports. With obesity rates rising, the competition between these pharmaceutical giants is set to intensify in the coming years.