Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill surges past 3M prescriptions despite stock undervaluation

Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) closed at $42.96 on June 5, well below analyst estimates of fair value. Experts place the stock’s worth closer to $74 per American Depositary Receipt (ADR). The gap comes as the company faces mixed financial signals from its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Wegovy. Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy has seen rapid adoption since its launch. Within five months, the pill surpassed 3 million prescriptions in the US. Company data confirmed this milestone, signalling a strong start for the new formulation.

Over 80% of these prescriptions went to patients who had never used GLP-1 medications before. This trend suggests the pill is attracting a broader audience beyond existing injectable users. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s rival oral therapy, Foundayo, entered the market in April but has yet to match Wegovy’s prescription volumes. Despite the pill’s success, revenue forecasts for 2026 point to a 9% decline. Analysts attribute this to weaker-than-expected injectable Wegovy sales, pricing pressures, and setbacks in the CagriSema clinical trials. Yet, TD Cowen remains optimistic about the long-term market. The firm raised its 2030 global GLP-1 revenue projection from $139 billion to $150 billion, driven by growing demand for oral treatments. Financially, Novo Nordisk trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.77 and a trailing P/E of 10.09. These figures, combined with the $74 intrinsic value estimate, highlight a potential undervaluation in the current share price.

The oral Wegovy rollout has expanded Novo Nordisk’s reach, pulling in new patients and outperforming competitors. However, near-term revenue challenges persist due to injectable sales and clinical hurdles. With analysts projecting long-term growth, the gap between the current share price and estimated value may draw further investor attention.